2025.08.25 Weekly

“Markets are just positions”

‘X’ has been very busy dissecting and opining on Powell’s Jackson Hole speech this weekend, and what stood out to me in particular is the many views that pointed to the price action to substantiate their view. We believe this is wrong without understanding the context, or the positioning in the leadup to Friday. As Tim quite often likes to say, “markets are just positions”, and I think that alone is enough to explain the outsized moves on Friday as we’ll unpack below. We will also be exploring some risks that is greatly underappreciated by the market, as well as some trading themes for the week ahead.