Focusing on US equities & US CPI. CPI Good or bad?
You can cherry pick and say disinflation overall or inflation in tariff affected areas. Is it possible that the average volatility of inflation will stabilize at a higher level than post GFC? If you say yes, then a higher term premia is warranted.
12month rolling standard deviation of core CPI
6month rolling standard deviation of core CPI
Expectations extremely dovish, vols somewhat muted, economic growth robust, fincon easy; for a highly critical week or two that has the potential to cause a polarising shift in sentiment from a cut in September to the possibility of no cuts at all this year, market appears ill-prepared.
Growth is strong and you're dovish?
“Markets are just positions” ‘X’ has been very busy dissecting and opining on Powell’s Jackson Hole speech this weekend, and what stood out to me in particular is the many views that pointed to the price action to substantiate their view. We believe this is wrong without understanding the
Plenty of mixed signals...